DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/18 11:23
Wheat Higher; Corn, Soybeans Lower at Midday
Wheat is firmer, while row crops are weaker at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher at midday with the Dow futures up
170 points. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 35 points
lower. Energies are firmer with crude up 30 cents. Livestock trade is mostly
lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 8.50.
Corn trade is fractionally to a penny lower at midday with trade fading from
early support from beans. The daily range for corn has only been 2 cents.
Ethanol futures are at the low end of the range to start the week, with
blenders continuing to see the most benefit to their margins. Corn basis and
carry are expected to remain steady to start the week. The expiration of the
December contract on Friday has nearby chart-watchers looking at the lower lows
printed by December as a target for March. The weekly export inspections are
expected to be in the 500,000 to 800,000 metric ton range with the official
report delayed due to technical difficulties. USDA announced 168,000 metric
tons of sorghum sold to China. On the March chart, support is the contract low
at $3.46 1/2 printed Friday and is being tested at midday with resistance at
the $3.52 20-day moving average, then the 50-day moving average at 3.58.
Soybean trade is 5 to 7 cents lower in quiet trade. Futures are failing to
extend overnight gains again and are scoring a fresh low for the move and
extending the lows here at midday. Meal is $1 to $2 lower, and oil is flat to
10 points higher. South American weather should see more rain in the near term
with planting wrapping up and moisture deficits so far for the growing season,
with questions about the extended forecast as we get deeper into the growing
season. Basis and carry are expected to remain sideways ahead of Christmas. The
weekly export inspections are expected to be in the 1.25 million to 1.75
million metric ton range. USDA announced 396,000 metric tons sold to China. On
the January chart, support is the recent low at $9.62 scored this morning.
Resistance is at the $9.76 200-day.
Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade finding light buying
with a test of upside resistance to start the week. The Plains continue to be
mostly dry in the short term with some better moisture expected in the extended
forecast. A winter storm is forecast for around Christmas with some winter-kill
concerns possible. Russia is also looking at buying from farmers to support
domestic prices, along with keeping exports boosted. The weekly export
inspections are expected to be in the 300,000 to 500,000 metric ton range. On
the March KC contract, chart support is the $4.10 1/2 fresh contract low scored
on Monday, with the 10-day at $4.19 first chart resistance, which we are edging
above this morning, with the 20-day at $4.26.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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