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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/21 10:57

   Grains Lower at Midday

   Trade is lower at midday, led by wheat and corn.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures down 6 points. 
The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 38 lower. 
Energies are mostly mixed with crude down 0.70. Livestock trade is mostly 
lower. Precious metals are higher with gold up $5.


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday to open the week with trade 
chopping lower as rain works across Iowa this morning, and with crop tours 
heading out today. Ethanol margins remain solid with the corn and energy 
complex moving in tandem in recent days with the end of summer-driving season 
rapidly approaching. Ethanol futures are edging slightly higher this morning. 
The USDA weekly Crop Progress report is expected to show steady conditions and 
maturity remaining behind normal, with weekly export inspections softer at 
691,442 metric tons of corn. On the December chart, support is the new low at 
$3.61, touched this morning with the contract low at $3.58 1/4 below that. 
Resistance is at the 10-day moving average at $3.72.


   Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade setting back on the 
rains working across Iowa this morning, although follow-up systems are expected 
to be limited. Meal is $2 to $3 lower, and oil is 30 to 40 points higher. The 
weekly Crop Progress report is expected to show steady to lower conditions, and 
maturity just above normal. The weekly export inspections were better at 
665,283 metric tons, with new-crop sales of 198,000 and 463,000 to China and 
unknown. On the November chart, support is at the fresh low for the move at 
$9.21, then the one-year low printed in June at $9.07. The 10-day moving 
average is chart resistance at $9.50. 


   Wheat trade is 5 to 12 cents lower with winter wheat holding up better after 
the cold snap in Australia raised frost concerns. The dollar rally has faded 
further, which should help to keep the U.S. more competitive with Russian 
logistical bottlenecks coming forward with their big crop with U.S. soft wheat 
the most competitive on gulf origin. Spring wheat harvest should move past the 
halfway point with harvest pressure likely to ease coming forward. Weekly 
export inspections were OK at 583,126 metric tons. Trade is heavily oversold, 
which should translate into bigger short covering at some point ahead of winter 
wheat planting. On the December KC contract, support is the $4.35 fresh low 
with resistance at the 10-day at $4.61.  

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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