DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/07 12:11
Corn, Soybean Futures Lower Midday Tuesday
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower, beans are 10 to 16 cents lower and wheat
is 2 cents lower to 1 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 540 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.15 higher. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are sharply
higher with crude up $3.10. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals
are firmer with gold up $3.50.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower Tuesday with range-bound action continuing
and fresh news lacking to drive the market in either direction. Ethanol margins
should remain in the current range until after Christmas driving season. Basis
should remain steady to firmer short term with fall field work on the
homestretch. On the March contract, we have support at the 20-day moving
average at $5.80, which we are testing at midday, then the upper Bollinger Band
at $5.93 as further resistance.
Soybean trade is 10 to 16 cents lower at midday with front month weakness
and trade looking for more demand indicators, as well as further crop progress
in South America with another 123,000 metric tons announced to unknown. Meal is
$3.50 to $4.50 lower and oil is 0.50 cent to 0.60 cent lower. South America
looks to continue short-term progress with issues remaining limited for now
with short-term dryness expected in the southern growing areas for the balance
of the week. Crush margins remain solid but further product weakness would
limit enthusiasm. Basis remains mostly flat near term. On the January soybean
chart, we slipped back below the 20-day at $12.49 Tuesday morning, with further
support the lower Bollinger Band at $12.09.
Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 1 cent higher at midday with spring wheat
retaking the lead as trade works along the lower end range. The dollar is just
above 96 points, continuing in the upper end of the range with calmer trade.
Weather in the Plains looks little changed short term with longer-term dry
concerns for the Southern Plains heading towards dormancy, and mixed forecasts
in Australia short term as harvest expands with various Black Sea area
concerns. Spring wheat is firmer versus Chicago moving the premium to 2.26
cents on the March, with KC at a 20-cent premium in firmer action so far. KC
March chart resistance is at the 20-day at $8.37 with the recent low at $8.15
as the first level of support.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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